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BRUSSELS — Amid intense diplomatic negotiations driven by US envoy Steve Witkoff in Berlin, the path to a Ukraine peace agreement is increasingly being paved with significant geopolitical and financial inducements from Europe.
The latest version of the peace plan being circulated reportedly includes a major commitment: Ukraine would become a full member of the European Union as early as January 2027, a dramatically accelerated process compared to typical accession timelines. The idea, proposed by Ukraine in its latest draft given to Washington, is said to have the backing of Brussels.
The push for a peace deal is inseparable from the issue of financial support for Ukraine, which faces a stark financial requirement of €135.7 billion over the next two years.
In a critical breakthrough that will frame the Berlin talks, European Union governments on Friday agreed to indefinitely freeze around €210 billion worth of Russian sovereign assets held in Europe. This agreement, which uses an emergency clause, is designed to pave the way for these funds to be loaned back to Kyiv following an EU summit next week.
The move, intended to provide financial help for Ukraine’s military and rebuilding efforts, has been condemned as “theft” by the Kremlin, with Russia’s central bank filing a lawsuit against the Belgian bank, Euroclear, where the majority of the assets are held. Negotiations are ongoing to secure water-tight legal guarantees for Belgium, which is particularly exposed.
Despite the promise of EU accession and the funding breakthrough, the US-led plan faces strong resistance on the core issue of territory.
The White House proposal to resolve the Donbas dispute involves Ukraine withdrawing its forces to create a demilitarized “special economic zone,” with Russia undertaking not to advance. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has questioned the security mechanism, refusing to cede territory without firm, legally binding security guarantees that deter future Russian aggression.
As US envoy Steve Witkoff meets with President Zelensky, Chancellor Friedrich Merz, and other European leaders this weekend, the diplomatic focus is on reconciling the US desire for a quick settlement with Ukraine’s existential need for security and financial stability.