Russia Providing Intelligence to Iran; China Also Moving In!

Darwin, 07 March:

Russia is assisting Iran by providing intelligence to help it attack U.S. forces deployed in the Middle East during the ongoing war, The Washington Post reported, citing three officials familiar with intelligence operations. This is the first indication that a major rival of the United States may be indirectly involved in the conflict.

One person involved said, “It appears to be a fairly large and coordinated effort.”

Russia’s embassy in Washington did not respond to requests for comment. However, Moscow has called for an end to the war and described it as an “unprovoked armed aggression.”

The exact extent of Russia’s assistance to Iran in identifying targets is not fully clear. However, according to officials, within a week of the war beginning, Iran’s own capability to identify the positions of U.S. forces had significantly declined.

Last Sunday, six U.S. soldiers were killed and several others injured in an Iranian drone attack in Kuwait. Iran has so far launched several thousand suicide drones and several hundred missiles targeting U.S. military positions, embassies, and civilian sites.

Meanwhile, the United States and Israel have jointly struck more than 2,000 Iranian targets, including ballistic missile facilities, warships, and even members of the country’s leadership.

Without directly commenting on Russia’s support to Iran, White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said, “The Iranian regime is completely devastated. Their ballistic missile strike capability is decreasing daily, their navy is being wiped out, and their weapons production capability is being destroyed. Even their proxy groups are no longer able to fight effectively.”

The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and the Pentagon declined to comment on the matter.

When asked earlier this week whether he wanted to send any message to Russia and China—two of Iran’s strongest supporters—U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said he had no message and that “they are not really major players here.”

In a separate report, CNN made similar claims. Citing U.S. sources, the report said Russia has been providing Iran with intelligence on U.S. military bases, infrastructure, ships, aircraft, and even troop movements and deployments.

This suggests that Russia is becoming involved in the Middle East war.

One of the most significant types of intelligence Russia is reportedly providing is high-resolution satellite imagery. However, it remains unclear what Russia is receiving from Iran in return.

It is also unclear whether Iran has carried out any attacks using intelligence provided by Russia. However, some Iranian drones have struck locations where U.S. troops had recently been deployed.

In addition, U.S. intelligence believes that China may soon begin providing financial support to Iran, along with weapons parts and missile components. However, China has not yet provided any direct assistance to Iran.

China is heavily dependent on Iranian oil. When Iran unofficially closed the Strait of Hormuz, oil shipments from the Middle East were disrupted. China is now pressuring Iran to allow oil and gas tankers to pass through the strait.

One source said China is being cautious about getting involved in the war because it wants the conflict to end. A prolonged war in the Middle East could threaten China’s energy supply.

Two officials familiar with the Russian assistance said that although Iran has close relations with China, Beijing does not appear to be providing Iran with defense support.

China’s embassy in Washington did not respond to requests for comment on the matter. However, Beijing has also called for an end to the conflict.

Iran’s Precision Strike Capability Has Increased

According to analysts, the pattern of Iran’s recent attacks—targeting command-and-control infrastructure, radar systems, and locations such as a temporary military camp in Kuwait (where six U.S. soldiers were killed)—suggests the sharing of intelligence. In the past few days, the CIA station at the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia, has also reportedly been attacked.

Dara Massicot, a specialist on the Russian military at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that Iran has been striking early-warning radars—known as “over-the-horizon” radars—with remarkable precision. “They are doing this very specifically and deliberately. They are systematically targeting command-and-control systems,” she said.

Massicot added that Iran possesses only a small number of military satellites and does not have its own integrated satellite constellation. In this situation, imagery obtained from Russia’s advanced space capabilities is extremely valuable for Iran. In particular, the Kremlin has itself become much more skilled at target identification, drawing on its experience from the war in Ukraine.

Nicole Grajewski, a researcher at the Belfer Center at Harvard Kennedy School who studies Iran–Russia cooperation, said there appears to be a “technological improvement” in Iran’s ability to select targets for retaliation and to penetrate U.S. and allied defense systems.

Nicole also said, “They are able to penetrate air defense systems.” She noted that the quality of Iran’s attacks has improved significantly compared with the 12-day war with Israel last summer.

Sources told The Washington Post that the Pentagon’s stock of precision weapons and air-defense interceptors (missiles used to destroy incoming missiles) is running low. When President Donald Trump was considering authorizing this operation, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine, raised the same concern.

However, the administration does not appear to be giving much weight to Caine’s assessment.