Netanyahu admits miscalculation about the Strait of Hormuz

Darwin, 11 May : Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has indicated that neither Israel nor the United States fully understood how effectively Iran could use its control over the Strait of Hormuz before the recent conflict began. According to him, both countries were effectively caught off guard by Iran’s exercise of power.

In an interview on CBS News’ program “60 Minutes”, Netanyahu acknowledged shortcomings in their assessments, saying: “I do not claim that our predictions were perfect. Nobody’s were. Not even the Iranians’.”

His remarks came after a New York Times report suggested that Netanyahu had believed Israeli and U.S. airstrikes would weaken Tehran enough to prevent it from closing the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important energy transit routes. A large volume of oil and liquefied gas produced in the Persian Gulf passes through this narrow waterway to global markets. As a result, Iranian influence over the strait has a direct impact on the global economy, with oil prices reportedly rising above $100 per barrel.

Due to its geographical position, Iran has long maintained significant influence over the area. Because of the ongoing stalemate in peace negotiations with the United States, more than 1,500 commercial ships are reportedly stranded in the Hormuz region.

“Iran’s collapse is possible, but not certain”

In the same interview, Netanyahu was also asked about another New York Times report claiming that in a February 11 meeting he had suggested that a joint U.S.-Israeli operation could lead to the collapse of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

He denied presenting such an outcome as certain, saying: “We both agreed there were uncertainties and risks.”

He added that U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly said there is risk in action, but even greater risk in inaction.

When asked whether Iran’s regime could fall, Netanyahu said:
“Nobody can say when it will happen. Is it possible? Yes. Certain? No. Like bankruptcy—it happens gradually, then suddenly.”

Comments on proxy networks

Netanyahu also argued that if Iran’s government were to fall, it would significantly impact its regional allies and proxy groups. He described Iran as the “core structure” sustaining groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis.

He further said he believes Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is still alive, though he has not been seen or heard from since reportedly being appointed successor in March following the death of his father. Netanyahu suggested he may be hiding in a bunker or secret location.

Plan to reduce reliance on U.S. military aid

Netanyahu also stated that he aims for Israel to become less dependent on U.S. military aid within the next decade, reiterating comments he previously made to The Economist earlier this year.

When asked about declining public support for Israel in the United States, particularly among younger Americans following the Gaza war, he attributed it to social media and what he called effective misinformation campaigns by unnamed states.

He said: “The campaigns against the Jewish state on social media have been very effective.”

A March Pew Research survey found that 60% of American adults now hold an unfavorable view of Israel, and 59% say they have little or no confidence in Netanyahu to do the right thing in global affairs.