US Forces to Leave Iraq After Two Decades and 4,500 Military Deaths

Iraqi security analysts told Reuters that the withdrawal decision, made in 2024 under then-US President Joe Biden, is now being implemented by the administration of Donald Trump. The move comes as the United States is simultaneously waging a war against Iran.

Analysts fear that the departure of American forces could allow Iran and its powerful allies to expand their influence in Iraq with fewer constraints. At the same time, Islamic State (IS) and other adversaries of the United States could find opportunities to regroup.

Jasim al-Bahadli, an Iraqi security analyst who studies Shia armed groups aligned with Iran, said Tehran would benefit strategically from the departure of the US-led coalition. For years, the American military presence had served as a counterbalance to Iran’s influence over Iraqi politics and security.

According to al-Bahadli, pro-Iranian militias will present the withdrawal as a victory and seek to increase their influence over security and political decision-making.

Abu Mujtaba al-Yasiri, a commander of the Iran-aligned armed coalition known as the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, described the American withdrawal as a “historic victory for the Iraqi Islamic resistance groups and honourable Iraqis” and a “complete defeat of the American project.”

“We will celebrate on September 30 the end of a dark chapter in Iraq’s history and the failure of the occupation to impose its will on our country,” he told Reuters.

‘Iraq Is Not Yet Fully Prepared’

Although the final withdrawal of American forces enjoys broad support among Iraqis, some who are concerned about the strength of Iran-backed armed groups believe the timing may be premature.

Abdul Rahman al-Jubouri, a Sunni tribal leader from Fallujah, once known as a stronghold of anti-American resistance, said Iraq was not yet ready to assume full responsibility for its security.

“We believe Iraq is not yet prepared to take full responsibility for security at this moment,” he told Reuters.

He said there was no disagreement among Iraqis over the desire for full sovereignty. However, the security vacuum that could emerge from the departure of the US-led coalition remained a major concern.

The United States invaded Iraq in 2003 to overthrow Saddam Hussein, the country’s Sunni Muslim authoritarian ruler. Washington subsequently occupied the country, helped establish a Shia-led government and spent years fighting insurgencies.

US forces withdrew from Iraq at the end of 2011. However, less than three years later, American troops returned to assist Iraqi forces in fighting Islamic State.

During a major military campaign between 2014 and 2017, US forces played a significant role in defeating the militant group and dismantling its territorial control.

The number of American fatalities in Operation Iraqi Freedom was nearly twice the number of US deaths in the war in Afghanistan during the same period. American forces were abruptly withdrawn from Afghanistan in 2021.

In recent years, Iraq has remained one of the few countries maintaining close political and military relations with both the United States and Iran. At times, Iraqi territory has become an arena for indirect confrontation between the two powers.

In 2020, a US drone strike near Baghdad airport killed Qassem Soleimani, one of Iran’s most senior military commanders. In the aftermath, Iran-backed armed groups repeatedly attacked American bases in Iraq, prompting retaliatory US strikes.

Of the 18 American service members killed in the war against Iran this year, seven were stationed in Iraq. Most recently, a US service member was killed in July while a drone was being deliberately destroyed at a base near Erbil.